I hate to be the bearer of bad news...The EU will fail

Dear EU Member Countries,

While I applaud your sincere efforts, unfortunately you have based your assumptions for success off the capitalist structure, and therefore the European Union structure, as we know it today, will fail. The good news is that it will not happen before the secession of Turkey.

Looking at the EU's aggregate history, the EU typically seeks expansion at times when member countries have already experienced the shift from agrarian to industrial economies. The most prominent example of this was Spain. Spain's main appeal to the EU was its cheap access to agriculture, but as income grew, industrialization increased, and the source for cheap agricultural products needed to be sourced from elsewhere....enter Romania & Bulgaria. I do make the stark assumption that the same pattern will occur with these countries, and the trend will continue. The overall assumption for this argument is based upon the capitalist dream of continuous economic growth. This indicates that after Romania and Bulgaria have industrialized and seek importing agriculture for themselves, Turkey's bid for the EU will be entertained. Continuing along this closed-bubble of Europe, if expansion of members is not continuous, there will be a point when the EU experiences crisis and will ultimately break apart. Europe is only so big.

I find this ironic because, although it has transformed from mercantilism to capitalism, I see many of the same trends from Europe's mercantilist inspired imperial history. As with most great empires, expansion reaches a limit. Most detrimental is quick expansion without solving existing dilemmas. When expansion ceases to be realized, it signals the beginning of the fall of an empire. It's true what they say, Success breeds succeeds...but only to a point. Using Europe's claim that they would like to build an economy to rival that of the US is based off the imperial assumption that in the long run, only a few great economies will dominate, as nation states did in the Early-modern era.

As we are experiencing currently with the economic situation, the EU's weaknesses are going to be exposed, especially each country's dependency upon each other's. Furthermore, the EU is in a unique situation; it will be interesting to see how willing member countries are to come to the aid of other members. Living in London currently, the belief on the street is that the US will bail out the entire world. Ha! Active international aid is not at the top of anyone's agenda at this time, when nation's policies tend to turn domestic. Yes, afterall, Adam Smith did state that we are self-interested individuals. This statement could prove detrimental for the EU if states try to pursue their own economic interests at the expense of other member states and the EU as a whole.

Sincerely yours,

The imperialista

P.s. I'm here for you if you need anything.